A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
